Our dangerous dependency on China
On October 11, 2024, the 23rd edition of the MARITIME ECONOMY FORUM was held at the Pomeranian Science and Technology Park in Gdynia. This is the most important meeting of the maritime industry in Poland, next to BALTEXPO.
The meeting gathered a record number of participants in the history of the Forum – nearly 700 people – which proves the growing interest in maritime economy and understanding its key importance for Poland’s security in all aspects.
This year’s leading topic was: “The future of the Polish and European maritime economy in the light of the current geopolitical situation.” Speakers of six extremely interesting thematic panels focused on analyzing the opportunities and threats related to the current global situation and its impact on the maritime industry in Poland.
The partner of the event was the Association of Polish Maritime Industries FORUM OKRĘTOWE, which organized a discussion panel devoted to the reviving of the shipbuilding industry in Europe, preceded by a speech by the honorary guest of the event – the Secretary General of SEA Europe, Christophe Tytgat (link to the report from his speech below).
Introducing the debate, the leader of the shipbuilding panel and director of the Association of Polish Maritime Industries FORUM OKRĘTOWE, Irek Karaśkiewicz, said:
– Let me start by explaining why the title of the panel is: how to revive the shipbuilding industry in Europe? Why in Europe, when what we really care about is our Polish shipbuilding industry? Well, Poland became a member of the European Union under the Accession Treaty, in which we transferred a large part of competences to it, including in the field of maritime economy. Other EU countries did the same. Therefore, the key to reviving the shipbuilding industry in Poland and other member states is to create solutions at the EU level in Brussels.
– It so happens that in a few months our country will take over the presidency of the Council of the European Union and may have a significant impact on the shape of the future strategy for the maritime industry, which Christophe Tytgat talked about. Over the last year, the political climate in Brussels and its approach to the shipbuilding industry have changed. The Polish government therefore has a historic opportunity to use this political situation for the benefit of the Polish shipbuilding industry. Immediately after Poland, Denmark will take over the presidency of the Council of the European Union – a country very focused on maritime economy. The year 2025 may be a breakthrough for the shipbuilding industry in Europe.
– Someone may ask a question: why should we revive the shipbuilding industry in Europe at all? There are still those who claim that this is unnecessary because ships built in China are cheaper and the financing for their construction is on much more favorable terms than in Europe. This approach dominated for years and led to the loss of much of the shipbuilding capacity of Western countries. The consequences of this very dangerous approach have finally begun to be realized in decision-making circles in the European Union and the United States
– Let our Polish reality serve as an example. In order to ensure the security of our country, we have become independent from supplies of energy resources from Russia, such as oil and gas, without which no country can function. But we should be aware that at the same time we have become dependent on sea transport, through which almost all of these energy resources now reach Poland. And the ships used to transport these raw materials are built in the increasingly politically unstable Far East. This instability is caused by China’s aggressive actions towards Taiwan, seeking to annex this country – not excluding the use of military action.
– The fact that almost all production of ships used to transport goods – including key ones such as energy raw materials – is located in the Far East makes us dependent on the geopolitical situation in that region of the world. We have replaced our dependence on Russia as suppliers of energy raw materials, with dependence on China’s actions and this country growing monopolization in shipbuilding. In the event of a global conflict – and we cannot rule out such a scenario – we may experience consequences of apocalyptic proportions, resulting in a complete collapse of maritime trade. We have experienced a small foretaste of this during the COVID-19 pandemic, when the supply chain was paralyzed for many months – a fact that many have already forgotten. That’s why making stronger shipbuilding capacity is so important for Europe and Poland, and this truth has reached decision-makers in Europe and the United States
– But there is an even more serious reason. There is growing concern about the very intensive expansion of the Chinese navy observed in recent years. According to the British press, every year China introduces over 30 new warships into service, and every two years it increases the size of its naval fleet by the size of the British naval fleet. Satellite images show that very modern and efficient commercial shipyards were engaged in the war production. The equivalent of a corvette, which takes 4 years to build in the United States, is built in China in just 1 year. So, the question arises: why is China doing this?
– Currently, China’s navy has already surpassed the United States’ fleet in terms of number of units and tonnage and is continuing to expand intensively. It is true that the combat potential of the US and its allies’ fleet is still much greater than that of the PRC’s fleet, but this advantage is quickly disappearing. The production potential of Chinese shipyards is currently 10 times greater than the combined production potential of American and European Union shipyards. Chinese shipyards are more efficient, faster, cheaper and many of them are already more technologically advanced than Western shipyards.
– In the United States, the lack of a competitive commercial shipbuilding sector has led to a loss of efficiency in the shipbuilding industry that builds and repairs warships. As a result, American shipyards in the military sector build extremely expensive warships, delivery deadlines for the new ships are exceeded, repairs of ships in service are delayed, and design documentation is not always of a top quality. The large and ambitious expansion program of the US Navy – in the face of the growing threat from China – is not going, as it should. This especially applies to state-owned shipyards – controlled by the United States government. Delayed deliveries and repairs of warships weaken the combat power of the U.S. fleet and therefore the safety of American taxpayers who finance these programs.
– China, seeing our weakness – which we have caused ourselves – is preparing for war, which the country’s communist leaders do not hide. Any future military clash will be of an air-sea nature, and its outcome will be determined by the production and repair potential of the shipyards of the fighting sides. Therefore, strengthening the shipbuilding capacity is a matter of survival for the West.
▶️Xi Jinping🇨🇳wezwał swoje wojsko do „kompleksowego wzmocnienia ćwiczeń i przygotowań do wojny”.
▶️Wezwał także wojska rakietowe, aby „zdecydowanie wypełniły zadania powierzone im przez Partię i naród”@pawel_behrendt @PiotrZychowicz @b_goralczyk @WarNewsPL1 @KWojczal @FilippDM pic.twitter.com/fSJ7I30Y5i
— Łukasz Kobierski (@LukasKobierski) October 21, 2024
– The above-mentioned reasons prompted decision-makers in the European Union and the United States to change their approach to the shipbuilding industry, which should become a strategic branch of the economy. Today we are no longer asking whether to revive the shipbuilding industry, but we are looking for answers to the question: how to do it? How to revive the European shipbuilding industry in the light of the enormous challenges that lie ahead – including the need for technological modernization and the demographic collapse we are experiencing and the resulting shrinking labor resources. And the discussion panel will be devoted to finding the answer to this question, announced the leader of the shipbuilding panel, Irek Karaśkiewicz.
Source: The Association of Polish Maritime Industries FORUM OKRĘTOWE
